NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, FD

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm
Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

  1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a trough of low pressure over
    the south-central Gulf of Mexico have decreased since yesterday
    and the Air Force reconnaissance plane scheduled to investigate the
    system for today will likely be cancelled. However, upper-level
    winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for
    development, and a tropical depression could still form Thursday or
    Friday before the system reaches the western Gulf Coast. Regardless
    of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across
    portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this
    week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
    system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

  1. A non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred
    miles west-southwest of the Azores is producing a large area of
    showers and thunderstorms and gale-force winds. This system could
    gradually acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics during the
    next couple of days while it meanders over the northeastern Atlantic
    Ocean, and before it becomes absorbed by a larger trough of low
    pressure. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
    the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

  1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late
    this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is
    possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the
    western Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Avila

About Allen Aycoth

President of The Blue Ridge Weather Watch
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