Mesoscale Discussion 1508

ACUS11 KWNS 272148
SPC MCD 272147

Mesoscale Discussion 1508
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Areas affected…Central North Carolina and North Central South

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 272147Z – 272315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…An isolated strong to severe storm is possible from
northern South Carolina into central North Carolina through the
evening. The primary threat will be damaging winds.

DISCUSSION…Although most storms have remained sub-severe through
the afternoon, a few storms have developed supercell characteristics
and deviated right of the mean wind. Given around 40 knots of
effective shear per KRAX VWP and around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
per RAP mesoanalysis, additional strong to severe storms remain
possible. The best chance for strong to severe storms will likely be
in the next hour or two before a cooling boundary layer starts to
limit storm severity later this evening. Given the weak mid-level
lapse rates, the chance for large hail should remain limited with
isolated damaging winds as the primary threat.

..Bentley.. 09/27/2018

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 35678013 36207962 36297871 36097804 35887782 35487773
35047823 34337934 33938022 34578035 35088047 35378030

About Allen Aycoth

President of The Blue Ridge Weather Watch
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